Fellow Nigerians, kindly accept my sincere apologies for
disappearing from this page abruptly last week. It was due to
circumstances beyond my control. I had really over-flogged
my body through marathon trips that left me totally knackered
and brain-drained. I truly appreciate your concern and
prayers. Many of you must have angered my perpetual cynics
who used to complain weekly and endlessly about my column.
Your messages, especially on Twitter, were eloquent
endorsements of my modest efforts at writing Pendulum under
stringent conditions most times.
Let me disabuse the minds of those who panicked about my
column being rested by the Management of Thisday
newspapers. No one can imagine the kind of freedom I have
enjoyed since I took up this assignment. The Publisher of
Thisday has never attempted to gag me in anyway and I’m
mightily proud of our cordial relationship. Mr Nduka
Obaigbena recognises the fact that a column is the personal
opinion of the columnist and does not necessarily represent
the editorial view of the newspaper. Those hoping and
dreaming and preaching that my column should be scrapped
should consider the interests of the majority who have come
to accept Pendulum as their weekend tonic.
In my last piece of penultimate week, I had written copiously
about my encounter with Dr Rilwan Lukman in Vienna about
15 years ago. I was shocked when news of his death reached
me two days after that he has passed on. I doubt if he ever
had time or enough consciousness to read what I wrote about
him but that Pendulum has become my fitting tribute to the
great man. May his soul Rest in Peace.
The title for this week was suggested or mandated by a
reader, Favour Afolabi, on social media. He had tweeted after
reading my piece, WHY I’M NOT A FAN OF PDP, that he
expects me to write about my fascination for APC, perhaps, at
a time many have chosen to write the obituary of that
potentially great party. Let me state categorically that I’m not
a member of APC but only a sympathiser and admirer for
several reasons. I’m a proud member of opposition. It is
unhealthy for a country with our myriad of intractable
problems to operate a one party system.
I love the Yoruba proverb that says “we cannot all sleep and
lie down facing the same direction.” As a member of
opposition, it is my responsibility to work for the rescue of
Nigeria from the ultra-conservative elements that have been in
power almost forever in our country. Our types of
conservatives have failed to yield positive results. They
pretend to practise capitalism but without the commensurate
capital. We love the American Presidential system of
Government but lack the strength and might of America. We
have spent too long a time and wasted so much of our
resources on living senselessly and needlessly in denial. The
rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. Most
of our institutional structures have collapsed and the country
is virtually on auto-pilot. Those who can’t see the imminent
danger ahead are the politicians and the toads of power. They
never fought for the democracy we enjoy today and so can
never seem to appreciate what we are bound to lose if this
present experiment collapses again.
My sympathy for APC is not without a caveat. I’ve not issued
them a blank cheque. I’m aware they have their own issues,
plenty for that matter. I know many Nigerians claim they can’t
see any difference between APC and PDP. I don’t exactly
agree as I shall explain shortly. There are also the ethnic
jingoists who don’t know the dictionary meaning of
democracy. They are those who argue that the current
President must govern the country for two terms WHICH IS OK
BY ME. But I do not subscribe to the idea that it has to be
done by force. What is the essence of holding the next
Presidential election, if no one else would be able or allowed
to win? Those who insist they won’t agree if the President is
defeated in the election are only inviting anarchy. They are
inflaming the polity and attracting public odium to the
President by making the gentleman look like a man hell-bent
on destroying his country on the altar of selfishness and
avarice. For all you care, there are many Nigerians who may
ordinarily wish to support the President but are now
sufficiently nauseated by all the noise or threats of mayhem if
opposition wins the election. I’m one of those who believe it
is within the rights of the President to re-contest but there is
nothing to suggest in our Constitution an automatic win for
him. And the position is not hereditary. As a member of
opposition, it is my belief that opposition groups must join
forces to dislodge the PDP in a clean contest.
Let me now go to why I admire APC warts and all. One, by
next year, PDP would have spent a total of 16 years in power.
In those years, Nigeria would have moved effectively from a
hopeful state to an almost hopeless nation. There is no
citizen of Nigeria, except the few in the corridor of power,
who’s not alarmed at the speed of our cataclysmic fall from
grace to grass. In every sector, we have witnessed a
downturn in the fortune of our dear beloved country. The very
powerful leaders at the Federal level have squandered the vast
resources of this great nation on frivolities to say the least.
They have blatantly refused to declare an emergency rule on
grinding poverty, infrastructural decay, mass ignorance,
occasioned by the collapse of education, gross insecurity,
atrocious corruption and extraordinary indiscipline, and so on.
Two, in any sane and sensible democracy, the PDP would
have been sacked long before now. Governments are not
sacked because there is a guarantee that the incoming would
perform much better but because the mood of the people is
such that they are totally tired and they want change or
temporary reprieve from their slave masters. It does not
matter if the next leader fails again, he would be changed for
another.
Such a change favoured the ascension of Barack Obama. The
people of Great Britain also kicked out their wiz kid Tony Blair
because they were just tired of his many stunts and unholy
romance with George Bush. Also, the ability to change a
leader through the ballot box is the beauty of democracy.
While no one can say with absolute certainty how APC would
perform at the centre, I would rather risk trying them before
knowing what they can do. At any rate, even if the argument
that they won’t do better is valid, Nigeria practices Federal
Character, so I ask why can’t we “quotalise” incompetence
and corruption! Why must PDP be the sole beneficiary?
Three, on a serious note, I’m reasonably convinced that a lot
of APC states have given us much to cheer and a semblance
of hope than most of the PDP states and certainly better than
the government at the centre. I find most of the APC states to
be potentially great despite not having the kind of resources
available to the Federal and their states. Anyone who cannot
see or acknowledge the modest efforts of APC Governors is
not being honest about it. While people may say APC leaders
have been enmeshed in their own mess, I still believe they
have made better use of the resources available to them. I’ve
always loved to say that nations are not run by saints but by
performers. None of us is a saint and none is likely to be in
our lifetimes but it behoves us to leave a legacy behind
despite our imperfections as human beings.
Four, it is necessary to send a powerful message to those
who think Nigeria can never change by first re-jiggling the
principal actors. I believe it would most probably force the
incoming government to know it is possible to be sacked like
its predecessor if it fails to deliver on its promises. To keep
PDP permanently in power is to keep Nigerians in perennial
servitude. Every attempt to change democracy to monarchy
should therefore be discouraged.
Five, the argument that the APC has become polluted because
some PDP members crossed over is a spurious fallacy. How
come PDP can welcome APC but APC can’t poach from PDP.
At the end of the day, we are all human beings from the same
country and what matters is to find more of sensible and
forward-looking ones in one party than the irredeemable
characters in the other. Let all those who oppose the PDP
style come together and uplift our nation. PDP can no longer
give what it has not possessed in nearly 16 years.
Six, it must be noted that both PDP and APC combined have
fewer members than the floaters who don’t belong to either of
them. I’m surprised at the seeming helplessness of the
floaters who can’t see the sense and possibility of joining the
opposition en masse so as to influence some of their
decisions unlike PDP that has already become too big and
incorrigibly set in its ways. Rather than regularly bemoan the
many afflictions of our nation, I plead with those on the side-
lines to engage in the torturous task of restoration. It will be
more rewarding to all of us collectively. To voluntarily give up
and say it is impossible is tantamount to committing mass
suicide.
Seven, my definition of change is to move away from an
existing disorder. PDP has been in the saddle since the return
to our half-cooked, if not raw, democracy. The party has
continued to wield the power of heaven and earth with nothing
tangible to show for it. The only change possible is to move
away from them and try something different and potentially
refreshing. This would require the determination and courage
of most Nigerians to accomplish, however.
Let me say categorically that I’m happy APC is facing critical
challenges at this type. If its operatives are wise, it would give
them enough time to put their house in order. What is needed
on their part is not insurmountable. APC must stop playing
Brazilian style of soccer in Brazil. Let them show us an
original game many admirers like us know they are capable of
playing. Let them bury their differences and bitter acrimonies
urgently or perish together. Let them tap and recruit from the
largest army in Africa, the unemployed masses of Nigeria and
give them hope of a brighter future. It is too late for PDP to
make such promises or offer such hopes but APC can still be
given the benefit of the doubt.
I can’t see PDP doing as well as it did last time in the North
West and North East the way those zones have become
ravaged by terrorism. Most people from those parts may want
to blame the President rightly or wrongly for their terrible woes
and seek their pounds of flesh. PDP might sweep the South
East and South South naturally and even do reasonably well in
the North Central, especially the traditional Middle-Belt. But
the battle ground remains the South West where APC needs
to stand firm. It should be obvious to APC that PDP would do
everything possible to control the South West ahead of the
general elections. But what I like about the South West is the
sophistication of its electorates who are already seeing
through the smokescreen of “Operation Capture the West by
all means.” The strategy is not new. It was tried in 1983
when NPN went on a binge and captured Oyo State but found
Ondo State too hot to handle. The people of the South West
naturally detest any form of intimidation or oppression. If the
PDP continues to harass them, it would eventually backfire.
It is up to the APC to remain strong and steadfast in its quest
for power. Its leaders would have to reach urgent consensus
on who and who to field for what and prune their Presidential
aspirants to barest minimum. I expect them to field a
Northern candidate against the Southern incumbent President.
Fortunately for APC, the President is generally believed to
have marginalised the South West that gave him victory over
Buhari the last time.
I don’t see more than three powerful contenders right now
from the North but Buhari, like him or hate him, is one
candidate PDP would hate to face despite the bravado that he
can be easily defeated by them. He enjoys a cult-followership
that seems to have increased in the last few weeks. In the
South, APC would have to decide on a Christian to pick as
Vice Presidential candidate between Governors Adams
Oshiomhole, Rochas Okorocha and Rotimi Amaechi, if none of
them defects to PDP before D-Day; or risk a Muslim-Muslim
ticket through a choice of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu or Governor
Babatunde Raji Fashola. Some of these leaders would have to
bury personal ambitions for the sake of Nigeria. If they refuse
and go ahead to kill the dreams of millions of Nigerians, the
shrieking cries of suffering citizens will keep them awake till
kingdom come…
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